2026-10-11 16:37 UTC

agent-economics

band: coolmomentum: stable score: 0.166
temperature history

Episodes (3)

Independent replications will determine whether hidden reasoning tokens and failed agent attempts cause cross-provider API costs on realistic tasks to diverge far more than published token prices imply.
resolvedconvergesscott: medium
Independent use will determine whether Reflex can reliably replay demonstrated desktop GUI workflows without per-run LLM calls across practical applications and interface changes.
expiredknownscott: low
Epoch AI (Jason Li) estimates the HBM shipped through 2027 could support only tens-to-hundreds of millions of concurrent frontier-model agents (up to ~1.9B on efficient open models), with even 20% utilization implying $2.6–5.3T/yr of API-equivalent spending against ~$1T projected developer revenue β€” and whether the figure becomes the standard reference for sizing agent demand against compute supply, or is credibly challenged as assumption-driven, resolves it.
watchingconvergesscott: high

Trajectory notes